Bitcoin has been hovering around $85,000 lately, but macroeconomist Lyn Alden believes it could still finish 2025 at a higher price point. In a recent interview on Coin Stories, Alden shared her insights on what’s driving Bitcoin’s price and what could help it break out of its current range.
Tariff Announcements Put a Damper on Bullish Expectations
According to Alden, her original forecast for Bitcoin in 2025 was more optimistic. But things changed after President Donald Trump announced new tariffs back in February. That single policy shift brought some uncertainty into the market, which in turn impacted investor sentiment.
“Before all this tariff kerfuffle, I would have had a higher price target,” she shared. Still, she remains positive that Bitcoin will close the year higher than where it stands today.
Could a Liquidity Surge Push Bitcoin Higher?
One of the key drivers Alden points to is liquidity. If the U.S. economy experiences a “massive liquidity unlock,” that could act as a powerful catalyst for Bitcoin. For example, if the bond market stumbles and the Federal Reserve steps in with strategies like yield curve control or quantitative easing (QE), that could flood the market with liquidity, boosting risk assets like Bitcoin.
Alden hinted that under such conditions, Bitcoin could revisit the $100,000 mark before year-end. However, she also cautioned that it won’t be a smooth ride. The road ahead is still likely to include “down days” where prices pull back.
24/7 Trading Makes Bitcoin More Volatile
One big factor that sets Bitcoin apart from traditional assets is its 24/7 trading. Unlike stock markets that close on weekends, Bitcoin never sleeps, and this can make it more volatile.
Alden explained that if traditional financial markets start showing signs of panic, Bitcoin may be the first to react. For example, if there’s concern over how stocks will open on a Monday, some investors may sell their Bitcoin on a Sunday just to stay ahead.
Bitcoin Could Decouple from the Nasdaq
While Bitcoin often moves in step with tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq 100, Alden believes it can also chart its own path. Especially in situations where Nasdaq companies see margin pressure, but global liquidity remains intact, Bitcoin could break away from its usual correlation.
She even pointed to the years between 2003 and 2007, just before the 2008 crisis, as an example. Back then, money flowed into emerging markets, gold, and commodities, while U.S. stocks weren’t the top choice. A similar trend now could benefit Bitcoin.
Bitcoin: A Global Liquidity Barometer
In one of her earlier research reports, Alden highlighted how Bitcoin tends to follow global money supply trends. Specifically, it moves in the same direction as global M2 about 83% of the time over 12 months. Compared to other major assets like gold and the S&P 500, Bitcoin had the strongest correlation to global liquidity, earning it the nickname: “a global liquidity barometer.”
In summary, Alden remains bullish on Bitcoin, though she admits external forces like tariffs have pulled back expectations a bit. Still, if market conditions shift in favour of higher liquidity, we could see Bitcoin climbing beyond $100,000, with its unique trading nature and macro connections playing a big role in the journey.
Source: Coinfomania / Digpu NewsTex