Vistra (VST) stock is down 6.3% in a day. The stock looks fairly priced at the moment, though history suggests you may benefit from buying dips. Consider the following data:
- Size: A $69 Bil company with $19 Bil in revenue currently trading at $204.24.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 31.6% and operating margin of 19.7%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.26 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.01
- Valuation: Currently trading at P/E multiple of 29.0 and P/EBIT multiple of 18.6
- Has returned (median) 51.4% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See VST Dip Buy Analysis.
While we like to buy dips if the fundamentals check out – for VST, see Buy or Sell VST Stock – we are wary of falling knives. Specifically, it is worth trying to answer if things get really bad, and VST drops another 20-30% to $142.97 levels, will we be able to hold on to the stock? What is the worst case scenario? We call it downturn resilience.
Below is a deep dive into Vistra (VST) downturn resilience – specifically, its performance vs the market during past crises? Turns out, the stock saw an impact slightly better than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.
Below are the details, but before that, as a quick background: VST provides electricity and natural gas retail to residential and commercial customers across 20 US states, while engaging in power generation, wholesale energy trading, risk management, and fuel logistics.
2022 Inflation Shock
- VST stock fell 33.2% from a high of $23.83 on 24 February 2021 to $15.92 on 17 May 2021 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 6 April 2022
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $217.92 on 22 September 2025 , and currently trades at $204.24
| VST | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -33.2% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 324 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- VST stock fell 46.2% from a high of $23.43 on 21 February 2020 to $12.60 on 18 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 24 February 2021
| VST | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -46.2% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 343 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- VST stock fell 21.4% from a high of $27.25 on 30 April 2019 to $21.43 on 23 July 2019 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 30 October 2019
| VST | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -21.4% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 99 days | 120 days |
Worried that VST could fall much more? You could take a look at the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
Disclaimer: The story “VST Dropped 6.3% In A Day. Have You Fully Evaluated The Risk?” first appeared on Trefis and is syndicated via Digpu & NewsTex.